Operational weather forecasting

Forecast details and method of delivery vary, while the underlying questions have some commonality:

  • What is the current forecast?
  • What are the main uncertainties in the forecast, and when do we expect them to be resolved?
  • How do we expect the forecast to evolve?
  • What do we expect the reality (the actual weather) to be? Delivering top quality solutions in a high-pressure environment is Lake Street’s norm.

Exceptional attention to detail enables us to aim to lead the pack

Delivering top quality solutions in a high-pressure environment is Lake Street’s norm.

Project Work

Lake Street has a wide range of experience in the energy sector: from prop trading to M&A analysis, from a single wind turbine to global coal dynamics, from the next hour to the next decade. Gas, power and coal markets are the energies we focus on. We have a keen awareness of how renewables are redefining the landscape. Whilst some of our work is in Europe, a global view is almost always required given the interconnected nature of the energy markets, and this we are able to provide.

We have the ability to run local area weather models in-house. Looking further out, we have access to climate change datasets with projections for decades ahead. From years of experience, we know which weather data and forecasts are most suitable for each situation. Lake Street realise that each forecast needs an estimate of uncertainty, and an awareness of which weather patterns give the extremes for any project.

We have worked on a wide variety of projects, including optimising gas storage profitability, comparing potential sites for wind farms, evaluating the impact of renewable generation growth on peak/off-peak power price spreads, calculating likely Q1 power price moves in Nordpool given precipitation forecasts, and investigating what changes were likely to LNG prices given the impacts of Fukoshima.

Most energy projects have a weather sensitivity. Contact us if you want to explore optimising your project using our expertise.

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