Using weather forecasts to trade energy

Isla Finney co-supervised a Masters student in the Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Planetary Physics Department at the University of Oxford over the winter of 2018-2019.
Jeremy Stanger looked into how to optimise the information on wind power generation in ensembles, using Germany as his example. Real market data was used to test various trading strategies using different weather forecast information. His results showed how far we’ve come – in terms of capturing information – and what improvements remain to be made. The paper details how to build the optimum weather-based trading strategy.

Cumulative profit and loss for various trading strategies using different weather forecasts. More information can be found in the article, the link to which is below.

The work was written up and published in the peer reviewed journal Environmental Research Letters and can be found at