How valuable are forecasts beyond this week?

Josh Dorrington was an intern at Lake Street from the Atmospheric, Oceanic and Planetary Physics department of the University of Oxford during the summer of 2019, thanks to a NERC award.

A peer reviewed paper based on this work has been published in the Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, and the full text can be found here

One of the figures not included in the paper, but which helps explain the results, is below. It shows how well (or not) the various weather forecast models capture changes in weather regimes at different lead times.