Credit: Professor Ed Hawkins (University of Reading)

Insight from historical observations: far more than an average

Historical weather information can answer questions about dominant wind directions for planning applications or objections, or to inform us about trends in order to decide whether we should plant vines that are frost resistant or drought resistant. 

For many questions the weather at more than one location is of interest: Lake Street will take into account weather patterns in these situations rather than use averages.  Suppose we have three sites at which to build a wind farm. There is a trade-off between choosing the position which gives greatest output, and choosing a position which is not well correlated with existing wind farms (as then you are generating when the price is higher). 

Averages will not give you this information, but weather patterns can.

Future Weather Patterns

However, we live in an evolving weather climate.  There is much we don’t know about the future weather, not least because our actions now can influence the outcome.  That said, there are climate models which have been run for a variety of ‘scenarios’ to try to forecast what future weather may look like. 

Headline figures about warmer or colder temperatures, wetter or drier rainfall patterns may get our attention.  It is the more subtle changes of which weather patterns will become dominant in any region, and how long the atmosphere stays in any one pattern, that often offer more insight into how to adapt.  Rainfall amounts may decrease for a given location. If that rainfall arrives in fewer, heavier rain events then flooding and drought are both more likely, unless prepared for.

Lake Street can help identify what weather patterns are important to your business.  We are then able to use available climate model runs to work out the best adaptation strategy, taking into account the uncertainties that exist.  Setting up reports as suggested by the Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures (TCFD) is another example of how we can help.

If future weather will impact your project, get in touch to find out how best to work with the weather to build in climate change resilience.

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